Holy SHIT!!!

Published on November 8, 2004 By Deference In Politics

Yes, it's true!

If all votes are counted in Ohio, Kerry will win the presidency!

Try this link:

http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=4201

Comments (Page 2)

on Nov 09, 2004

I hope Kerry wins, but I'm not holding my breath. We the people voted for Bush, apperently. We will know for sure pretty soon anyway.

Grim Xiozan

on Nov 09, 2004

Does this mean when you all reverse it the Bush people can chant that Kerry stole the election and Bush is President like the Gore people have done?

Turnabout is fair play right?

How did you all like the fruit punch Jell-o at Supper today in the Asylum, I thought it was grand!!

Plinko!!

T B

on Nov 09, 2004

I don't care which way it goes, I just want to know.

It's done. I've followed all the links, this is some incredibly creative wishful thinking. The article you link to cites (and links) another by someone named Tom Paine. Mr Paine then cites the exit polls, does some creative math (and demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of statisitcs) to arrive at the conclusion Kerry won. Additionally, Mr. Paines article links to "The Clevland Plain Dealer" as a source for his creative math, which in turn does not in anyway substaniate his claim.

In general Mr. Paine claims that if all the discounted votes (92, 672) AND the provisional ballots (155,000 of which about 85,000 were in counties Kerry won, meaning 70,000 were in counties Bush won) Kerry would be the winner. What he fails to mention, the number of discounted votes declined from the 2000 election even though there was more than 3/4 of million more voters. The discounted votes are such things as deliberate no votes, duplicate votes and the infamous "hanging chad". Provisional ballots are generally not counted unless the election is in question. Therefore, even if ALL the discounted votes were re-counted, found to ALL be valid and ALL for Kerry, it still isn't enough for the provisional vote to be counted (Kerry would still be behind by over 40,000 votes).

Provisional ballots are special ballots given to voters who believe they are registered but whose names don't appear on the rolls. The ballots must then be verified as valid, one by one. In the 2000 election in Ohio there were 123,000 provisinal ballots and 90% of them were deemed valid, the expectation is that this year the number would be lower (by even the Democrats reckoning).

Let's assume that ALL the discounted ballots were valid (highly improbable) and they went 70-30 for Kerry. That would be 64,870 more for Kerry and 27,802 for Bush. That still leaves Bush up by 98,932 votes. Let's then assume 90% (a rate higher than anyone believes) of the provisional ballots are valid (that means 139,500 are valid). Let's assume those split 80 -20 for Kerry. That gives Kerry and additional 111,600 and Bush 27,900. Bush STILL WINS OHIO by 15,232 votes. I'm sure that's what the Kerry campaign was looking at before they decided to make the concession. Is it possible Kerry would win? I suppose, but it's also possible to win the Lottery and get struck by lightning, twice, on alternate Ash Wednesdays.

Sorry to say, anyone holding out hope for an Kerry Ohio victory is more than a bit delusional.

Manopeace

on Nov 09, 2004

It's OVER!!! Bush won!!! Accept it!!!
I don't like it either...but it's a fact.

stevendedalus

on Nov 09, 2004

Even if he did win Ohio, I, unlike some Republicans in 2000, would be unhappy over Kerry's huge loss in the popular vote and would expect him to decline.

terpfan1980

on Nov 09, 2004

The reason this isn't true:

If it was, Mary Beth Cahill wouldn't have let Kerry concede....
... James Carville...
... John Edwards...
... Joe Lockhart...
... CBS News/NYTimes...
... Terry McAuliffe...

... and a host of others that would have been screaming from the hilltops that Kerry had won Ohio.

Keep dreaming, keep trying to delegitimize the mandate that Bush got. It just shows you to be a poor loser that is stuck in the past and dreaming.

Deference

on Nov 09, 2004

Keep dreaming, keep trying to delegitimize the mandate that Bush got. It just shows you to be a poor loser that is stuck in the past and dreaming.

What a lack of class. This was a request for more information on a rampant rumour, it in no way reflects some "poor loser stuck in the past "mentality. I can provide you an excellent example of a poor winner in reply #21, though....

Chemicalkinetics

on Nov 09, 2004

Yes, it's true!

If all votes are counted in Ohio, Kerry will win the presidency!

Try this link:

http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=4201

Is that what we have become? We site a communist site for proof that Bush has lost? Should I go to some neo-nazi site and show that Chinese are stupid?

Grim Xiozan

on Nov 09, 2004

Can shit be justified as holy or unholy?

The philosophical ramifications boggle the mind.

Plinko!!

citahellion

on Nov 09, 2004

Holy SHIT!!!

Yes, it's true!

If all votes are counted in Ohio, Kerry will win the presidency!
(link)

This was a request for more information on a rampant rumour

I don't see how you can reasonably apply the latter statement to the former.

Deference

on Nov 09, 2004

It's all well explained up there in post #3 and #5. Thank you, drive thru.

drmiler

on Nov 09, 2004

Reply #27 By: little_whip - 11/9/2004 2:23:37 PM
Youre quite insane, you know.

Rumours are just that, rumours...as in unfounded, unproven, speculation.....you know....rumours!

Facts are facts though.

You didnt request more information on a rampant rumour.

You stated it was TRUE.Yes, it's true!

If all votes are counted in Ohio, Kerry will win the presidency!

Therefore spreading the rumour. Newsflash....EVEN IF HE TOOK OHIO its still not enough.....he certainly didnt take florida, or NM, or even Iowa....or any of the other states filing late returns. What would it take to finally convince you that KERRY LOST? I mean it...what would it take?

I really hate to say this but if Bush lost Ohio, Kerry would have won by 5 EC points. As it stands now final EC score, Bush 282 Kerry 247. If Ohio went down the tubes. Bush 262 Kerry 267. But I do HOPE that all of this is simply BS!!!

Deference

on Nov 09, 2004

"Youre quite insane, you know.

Rumours are just that, rumours...as in unfounded, unproven, speculation.....you know....rumours!

Facts are facts though.

You didnt request more information on a rampant rumour.

You stated it was TRUE."

Little whip, that's the first line of the link. Go bonk someone else over the head... Keep the sore winners coming! Really, guys, this is just too easy.....now you're simply wasting my time and yours, any more whacks at the pinata?

bakerstreet

on Nov 09, 2004

Shows how far into denial Liberals are. They can't accept that anyone they would vote for could lose. Fact is though, he lost by millions of votes. Let them console themselves with conspiracy theories. It just makes them look like nuts and less palatable to undecided voters.

citahellion

on Nov 09, 2004

Deference, posts 3 and 5 were requests for further information, I'll certainly grant you that. The original article, however, stated the supposition as bald fact, with emphasis. If you want to claim it was all a request for information, you need to edit the main post to include your inquiries.

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